流程、合规与操作风险管理

商业银行风险管理研究中“违规活动—操作风险—信用风险”风险链条尚未得到足够重视． 巴塞尔委员会全面风险管理框架下的众多风险是分层次的，最底层是合规与操作风险，合规与操作风险做到位能极大降低其他风险发生的概率． 以往由于缺少数据支撑，信用风险的合规与操作风险动因无法建立，本文基于“流程—节点—风险点—控制措施—违规事件”关联模型，建立了合规与操作风险的动因库和损失数据库，并在理论上对风险链条上的风险传递关系进行初步探索． 首先基于流程对合规与操作风险动因进行解析，寻找深层次的人员违规和操作风险动因; 其次，探讨了金融机构如何通过业务流程再造改善合规与操作风险管理; 最后是基于流程的操作风险量化建模． 基于实践，总结提炼了“三位一体”的金融机构合规与操作风险管理模式，包含理论基础、信息系统和保障机制，该模式在诸多金融机构中得到运用，并取得显著成效．     

The implementation of digital technologies for operations management: a case study for manufacturing apps

Abstract

Manufacturing applications address business to business (B2B) with highly customised applications developed for specific requirements, offering highly specialised solution-oriented and service-based software components, systems, and digital tools that aim at a fast and accurate decision-making support system. The purpose of this paper is to describe the implementation of digital technologies for operations management using manufacturing or engineering apps (eApps), for product design and manufacturing processes. In particular, starting from the specific needs of two companies from mature European industries as automotive and food, this work depicts how this kind of solutions can support companies and improve their operations. In particular, related benefits and challenges faced for the full implementation of the developed tools are highlighted. Moreover a business model to exploit the manufacturing apps is also proposed. The business model proposed for the exploitation of the eApps supports the commercialisation of all the revenue streams offered by this rapidly growing sector taking into account the specific needs of the concerned stakeholders through a diversified value proposition.     

劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响研究

借鉴已有相关研究成果,将劳动力转移、农业技术水平与城乡居民收入差距联系起来思考,可以具体地考察劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的影响.文章以农业技术水平作为门槛变量,选取2009—2019年中国31个省份的面板数据,利用泰尔指数测定城乡收入差距,以劳动力转移作为核心解释变量构建面板门槛模型,实证得出劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距的非线性影响.研究发现:劳动力转移可以缩小城乡居民收入差距,且该影响具有单一门槛效应.在农业技术水平较低时,劳动力转移对城乡居民收入差距收敛效应较小;当农业技术水平越过门槛值达到较高水平后,劳动力转移对缩小城乡居民收入差距的效果几乎增加了一倍.此后,通过替换解释变量泰尔指数为城乡人均可支配收入比、替换核心解释变量农业技术水平为农业生产效率重新建立面板门槛模型,发现上述结论仍然成立,其检验结果具有较强的稳健性.文章将农业技术进步、劳动力转移、城乡居民收入差距这三个重要变量纳入同一模型框架中,在加深劳动力流动影响城乡居民收入差距这一视角的研究的同时,对缩小城乡居民收入差距政策的制定提供了重要的参考意义.     

论新媒体冲击下纸媒的生存与发展——以报纸为例

互联网的发展、智能手机的普及使传统的传媒环境和格局发生了翻天覆地的变化。新媒体的崛起与壮大给以纸媒为代表的传统媒体带来了前所未有的冲击，但不可否认的是，纸媒自身依然有不可替代的优势。本文主要以报纸为例，从纸媒传播内容的深度和可信度、纸媒对于受众文化素质的要求以及纸媒的表现形式、和受众的互动等方面的特点入手，分析在新媒体的冲击下纸媒所面临的生存现状，并且在此基础上指出将来纸媒应该如何利用新媒体的技术来促进自身的发展，更好地实现新媒体与传统媒体的融合。     

婚姻市场、农业剩余与光棍分布--一个理解农村光棍问题的中观机制

在婚姻市场渗透下，中西部农村家庭继替具有市场参与性特征：婚姻市场竞争过程形塑出以竞争力为指标的婚姻梯队序列，在优势梯队实现的家庭继替具有向上社会流动的特征，梯队末端则呈现为底层沦陷；农村男性青年在婚姻梯队序列所处的位置取决于其家庭的资源积聚方式、能力和分配方式。调查发现末端梯队集中分布于农业剩余稀薄村庄，其内在机理是农业剩余稀薄通过形塑家庭劳动力的不合理配置与以年轻人为主体的资源积聚方式和向家庭日常生活基本需要进行倾斜的资源分配方式削弱了男性青年的婚姻市场竞争力，其现象表征是扎堆分布的光棍。     

农产品品牌传播关键节点研究--基于青岛市农产品品牌触点管理的调研

褚橙、柳桃等品牌农产品的高调走红，吸引更多目光聚焦在农业这块“品牌荒地”，重新审视农产品品牌与消费者个性沟通体系的构建。基于品牌触点管理理论，结合青岛市农产品品牌触点管理的调研数据，文章指出产品、渠道、体验、品牌活动等触点是农产品品牌与消费者关系建立的关键点，是影响农产品品牌传播效果的重要元素。农产品品牌可强化产品整体概念，规范产品包装体系；甄选渠道，加大终端管理；深耕消费者体验，“定制”个性营销，以此提升品牌传播绩效。     

The reality of net capital gains and annual profit on NZ primary producing businesses: data from a recent survey of all farm types

ABSTRACT

Annual net cash returns and net capital gains provide farmers with their actual and potential monetary rewards, respectively. This article reports on a national farm survey showing both actual and potential returns, on average, are not as high as might be imagined. This is supported by the findings of earlier studies and has implications for rural societies and their associated economies. Data on income, expenses and profit is presented as is data on farm value changes over the life of each farm. The information is adjusted for inflation to provide ‘real’ data. The profit and net capital gain figures are divided into groupings based on a range of criteria such as total farm capital, and labour compliment as a reflection of farm size. Statistically significant differences occur for some groupings such as farm type and farm size.     

区块链应用下生态农产品供应链优化

利用博弈模型，对生态农产品供应链内部契约合作稳定情况进行研究，并就区块链技术如何保障生态农产品供应链稳定运行进行分析。分析认为：生态农产品供应链稳定运行情况受到市场风险制约，区块链技术能通过改善生态农产品供应链内部信息不对称现象，增加生态农产品供应链内部交易节省成本并提高主体违约成本，同时增加生态农产品供应链主体长期合作得益及协调主体合作，从而保障生态农产品供应链稳定运行。在此基础上，结合区块链技术特征对区块链技术应用下生态农产品供应链结构设计进行了探讨并对部分可能出现的问题进行了讨论。     

Beyond Continuity? Understanding Change in the UK Welfare State since 2010

One approach to identifying policy change stresses policy instruments, settings and policy paradigms, while another also considers the process and culmination of various shifts and consequent outcomes. This article illustrates the debate through an examination of how far developments in social security policy between the 1997–2010 New Labour and 2010–15 Coalition Governments in the UK constituted real policy shifts. It shows that, despite continuities in instruments and approach, there have been substantial changes in the impact of welfare state policies related to short‐term benefits, employment and housing. The article identifies new policy directions leading to a different kind of welfare state, concerned less with living standards and equality and more with individual responsibility and paid work. It suggests that this has been achieved without the need for radical changes in instruments and their settings.     

新媒体时代高校思想政治教育面临的挑战与机遇分析

信息技术的发展和新媒体技术在高校教育中的应用对高校思想政治教育产生了巨大的影响,高校要想提高思想政治教育效果,为学生做出积极有效的思想指引,就要把握新媒体时代带来的挑战和机遇,制定更加科学而有效的思想政治教育模式,提高教育效果。分析新媒体时代高校思想政治教育面临的挑战和机遇,具有十分重要的意义。